Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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Drilling-Prospects.com
  • An Analysis of Where We Have Come From and Our Perspective On Current Oil and Gas Prices
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Talking Land Management with Sister & Grandfather Blake
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Estimated 1960 Prices
  • Oil was selling around $3.50 per Barrel
  • Natural Gas was subject to NGPA rules and regulations
  • Natural Gas Sold for $0.10 to $0.15 per MCF
  • Estimated that 50% of Natural Gas produced world wide was flared
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300 Refineries Operating in 1960
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North Dakota 1976-1980
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Estimated 1978 Product Price
  • Oil selling for around $17.50 per barrel
  • Interstate gas remained regulated – Gas Shortage looming
  • Intrastate gas remained unregulated – Texas had abundant gas supplies selling for as high as $5.00 to $10.00 per MCF
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Blake-Berry-Blake Corporation
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The Texans in Williston, ND
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The Highest Product Price in History
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Over 300 Refineries
Operating in 1980
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New Lincoln $13,999.00 with TTL
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President Carter Declares War on Imported Oil
  • Express concern over 45% of US consumption of oil from foreign sources


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President Carter Declares War on Imported Oil
  • Express concern over 45% of US consumption of oil from foreign sources
  • Passes the windfall profit tax to punish domestic producers of oil and gas for excess profits
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President Carter Declares War on Imported Oil
  • Express concern over 45% of US consumption of oil from foreign sources
  • Passes the windfall profit tax to punish domestic producers of oil and gas for excess profits
  • Windfall profit tax takes 80% of profits from oil sold above acceptable threshold of $25.00 per barrel as adjusted annually for the CPI (Currently Calculated Above $90.00 Per Barrel)
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Operations 1980-1986
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Hundreds of Thousands Loose Jobs in the 1986 Price Collapse
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Signs of the Times
  • Mercantile National Bank – Dallas
  • Mercantile Bank - Chicago
  • Penn Square Bank
  • Republic Bank of Texas
  • FDIC





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Gas Bubble of Surplus Supply and Weak Demand
  • Amendments in 1987 to the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978 removed restriction  on the use of gas in power generation
  • Natural Gas Wellhead Decontrol Act of 1990 removed wellhead price controls
  • Series of FERC Orders created an unbundled and more flexible transportation system for Natural Gas
  • Retire the Windfall Profits Tax (No tax collected)
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Iraq Invades Kuwait
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Proposed Kyoto Protocol
Energy Information Agency Vs. Clinton/Gore
  • EIA household energy costs $335-$1,740
  • Carbon permits prices $67-$348/ton
  • Gasoline price increase $0.14-0.66/gal
  • EIA estimates GDP losses of $60- to $387-billion
  • Clinton/Gore estimates $70-$110 annually
  • Administration estimate: $14-$23/ton
  • Estimates no more than 5.5 cents/gal
  • Administration projects losses of $1- to $5-billion
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Rocky Mountain Oil Journal Reports: Business Dismantled - February 19, 1999
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"Rocky Mountain Oil Journal Reports"
  • Rocky Mountain Oil Journal Reports:
  • Business Dismantled
  • February 19, 1999
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The Results of Low Oil Prices
Low Oil Production!
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Richardson To Delay Oil Deliveries to Strategic Petroleum Reserve (Sites High Oil Price)
  •   U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson today directed the Department of Energy's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Office to renegotiate oil delivery contracts for the Reserve's royalty-in-kind program. "Given today's market conditions, it simply makes sense to renegotiate these deliveries," Richardson said.
  •     January 26, 2000
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September 11, 2001
World Trade Center is Rubble
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Price Swings of 9-11
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President Directs Energy Secretary to Increase Strategic Petroleum Reserve
  •     President Bush today directed the Secretary of Energy to increase the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve up to its 700 million barrel capacity using principally royalty oil from federal offshore leases. The President's directive will add up to 108 million barrels of crude oil to the nation's emergency oil stockpile. The President's action will enhance the energy security of the United States by strengthening the nation's capability to respond to potential oil supply disruptions.
  •     November 17, 2001.


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Oil & Gas: Where Are We Today?
  • Price of Crude is lower today than in 1979 when adjusted for inflation


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Environmental Access Impact
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150 Refineries Operating in 2005
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Problems in Refining and Gas Price
  • Fewer Refineries Operating at Maximum Capacity
  • Boutique Fuel Blends Lead to Supply Problems
  • High State and Federal Taxes on Gasoline
  • Environmental Restrictions Limit Refinery Upgrades and Additions



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API Statistics – July 2008
  • Product
  • Total Demand (Crude & Distillate)
  • Imported Crude
  • US Produced Crude
  • Gas In Storage
  • Rig Count – Onshore
  • Future – 1 Month (6/27/08)
  • World Oil Balance (4th Qt. 07)
  • WTI Cushing (6/27/08)
  • 2008 2007 2005 2004
  • 21,000 21,001 (2006 – 20,635)
  • 13,840 13,277 13,301
  •   5,164   5,183   5,383 5,400
  •   1,943   2,882   2,463 2,420
  •   1,936   1,523   1,356 1,241
  • $137.63 $71.91 $64.91 $52.10    -1.19     0.77
  • $136.75 $88.50
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Rita and Katrina Assessment
  •     When Hurricane Rita made its way across the Gulf of Mexico, it pushed its through many of the offshore block areas that contain the greatest number of oil and gas platforms. In fact, 5 of the top 6 areas containing the most offshore structures experienced 100+ mph winds from Hurricane Rita. As a result of Katrina and Rita, 109 platforms were destroyed and another 57 platforms were significantly damaged, according to the MMS. The majority of these damages were inflicted by Rita, since the US Coast Guard indicated that Katrina had destroyed only 29 platforms and damaged 29 more. That leaves a total of 80 platforms destroyed and 28 platforms damaged by Hurricane Rita.


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Legislation would clear way for windfall profits tax at >$40/bbl
  • North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan recently introduced legislation to fund consumer rebates through a three-year, 50-percent excise tax on crude oil. The Dorgan measure, the Windfall Profits Rebate Act of 2005, defines windfall profit as that portion of a barrel of oil that exceeds $40. The measure targets major integrated oil companies.
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Oil Reached $45.00/BBL in 2004
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At $40.00 Bbl – Oil Remains Far Below 1981 in 1978 Inflation Adjusted Dollars
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WPT = Decrease Needed Capital
  • “The oil companies are reaping $7 billion a month in windfall profits, money that comes straight out of our economy and that most consumers cannot afford,” Dorgan said. “At the same time, there is no corresponding increase in expenses for them. Just massive windfall profits.” The 50-percent excise tax would be reduced dollar for dollar through investments by oil companies in new domestic oil exploration, increased or new refinery capacity or renewable sources of energy.


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Capital Provided by High Oil Price Will Provide Future Domestic Sources
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$130.00 Per Barrel Oil Will Provide:
  • Increased Exploration Worldwide
  • Increased Domestic Production
  • Incentive to Open Lands Currently Off-Limits
  • Decrease Consumption
  • Higher Efficiency in Consumption
  • A Cleaner Environment
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America Needs a Strong Domestic
Oil and Gas Industry
  • INFLATION ADJUSTED $130.00 OIL IS A BARGIN
  • North Dakota is a High Cost Exploration and Operating Environment
  • North Dakota is an Oil Province, Holding Important Oil & Gas Resources Vital to the Economy of the Entire United States
  • The WPT Proposal will end the Oil & Gas Industry in North Dakota, Montana and much of the Rockies!
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"I haven’t changed much over..."
  • I haven’t changed much over the years as you can plainly see . . . And,
  • There is no WINDFALL! We currently have domestic exploration companies struggling to recover from an 18 year depression.
  • If the United States is, to remain strong, a vibrant domestic energy industry is vital.
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Drilling-Prospects.com
  • www.drilling-prospects.com
  • 1-800-453-4275
  • P.O. Box 10105, Liberty, TX 77575